Joe Tigay The Economic Roller-Coaster: Inflation Surprises, Political Pressures, and the Road Ahead in 2024
In recent years, inflation in the United States has caught economists off guard with its unpredictability. They grappled to comprehend the sudden spike and subsequent rapid decline in inflation. Hopeful for a return to normalcy without the specter of a recession, economists see potential positive implications for President Biden.
Historically, the Federal Reserve has erred on the side of caution, ensuring that inflation is below the trend before implementing cuts, especially when the job market exhibits robust strength. Despite some signs of weakness within last week’s overall positive job numbers, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen finds reason to declare victory, stating that we are experiencing a soft landing.
The Federal Reserve has hinted at the possibility of one or two cuts in 2024, a stance that diverges significantly from the market’s expectations. The market, anticipating more aggressive cuts, is driven by the unique circumstances of 2024 being an election year. The political pressure to stimulate the economy through rate cuts is particularly strong.
Speculation abounds regarding the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate adjustments, with economists cautioning against expecting swift action. While optimism surrounds the prospect of a soft landing, economists maintain a watchful eye for potential risks, including the looming threat of geopolitical shocks.
