Joe Tigay Navigating the Summer 2025 Markets: Low Volatility, All-Time Highs, and Upcoming Catalysts
As the week of July 7th, 2025, begins, the market collectively exhales. We have cleared several major hurdles, paving the way for what promises to be a robust summer trading period. The budget milestone is behind us, and we have absorbed the July jobs report, shifting our focus squarely onto the evolving landscape of global trade deals and impending economic data.
Volatility Dives as Markets Soar
Remember the rocky ride earlier this year? The VIX , often called the “fear index,” paints a compelling picture of diminishing market anxiety. After experiencing significant spikes earlier in 2025 due to events like “Deepseek AI,” “Tariff Threats,” and geopolitical tensions including the “US Debt Downgrade,” “Iran Bombs US Base,” and the “Israel Iran War”, volatility has now reached fresh lows. The VIX chart clearly shows a downtrend since late March/early April, with the last price at 17.63. This signals a growing sense of calm and confidence among investors as we push through the summer months.
The VIX futures curve further illustrates this trend. The current curve shows lower values across the board compared to a week, one month, or two months ago, indicating that market participants anticipate continued stability in the near term.
Mirroring this confidence, both the SPX and NDX indices currently stand at all-time highs. The “Magnificent 7” Index (BVTT Index) also rapidly approaches record territory, reflecting the strong performance of these market-leading companies. Even the SMH (Semiconductor ETF) demonstrates a strong upward trend, nearing its previous highs.
Trade Deals, Tariffs, and the Road Ahead
While the market celebrates these milestones, attention now shifts to international trade. We face several key deadlines , and importantly, some extensions are being granted. However, not all news on the trade front is positive. President Donald Trump has warned of an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS”. This comes as the US prepares to send tariff letters to dozens of countries, with the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on higher duties set to expire on Wednesday. BRICS leaders, including China and India, have publicly condemned US and Israeli attacks on Iran and called for a “just and lasting” resolution to conflicts across the Middle East.
Despite these tensions, negotiations for trade deals continue. President Trump plans to announce trade deals and deliver tariff warnings ahead of an August 1st deadline. The European Union has indicated progress toward securing a deal, with Germany supporting the Commission’s strategy.
Next Catalysts: Inflation and a Tech Earnings Preview
Looking ahead, the market’s focus will quickly turn to upcoming economic data and the start of earnings season.
- Inflation Data: CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports are due next week. These will prove crucial in shaping expectations around potential interest rate cuts.
Bank Earnings: The banking sector will kick off earnings season next week, with major players like JPM, WFC, C, and BLKR reporting. Their results and forward guidance will provide key insights into the health of the broader economy.
Tech Preview: We also receive a key tech preview of earnings next week with reports from industry giants TSMC and ASML. These results will offer early insights into the health of the semiconductor industry beyond the booming AI sector.
In this dynamic environment, while overall market sentiment is bullish, staying informed about these upcoming catalysts and geopolitical developments will be key to successfully navigating the summer months.
