Joe Tigay This week on the Trading Zone, we dive into the fascinating “ripple effect” playing out in the market. The Dow Transports, a key indicator of economic health, has lagged behind all year, while the S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory. We explore two intriguing possibilities:
- Artificial Intelligence and Market Participants: is the rally driven by artificial intelligence and a select few market participants?
- Leading Indicator of a Slowing Economy: could the underperformance of the transports signal a slowing economy, with the transports refusing to participate in the broader market enthusiasm?
(Check out updated trades via X: @Brian Stutland & @Joe Tigay)
Adding another layer of intrigue, the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision loom large. These developments have the potential to send shockwaves throughout the market, affecting the trajectory of the S&P 500 and possibly triggering a correction.
Additionally, we zoom in on a NVDA featured in the video. Following a recent price surge exceeding analyst targets, a period of consolidation or “range-bound” activity seems likely in the next week. This could represent a natural correction after a strong run-up, similar to the brief “shakeout” observed a few weeks ago and the post-earnings effect.
Critical Charts & Trend Lines to Observe
VIX Futures Curve
Skew 2 Year
Skew is back to its mean reverted area. Watching for overly optimistic signs when skew dips below 2.0 or if put buyers come back bidding the skew up to higher highs.
SPX breaks out of trend lines with a surge in growth. Watching the green channel as the bull trend up continues.
SPX & DOW Transports
SPX and DOW Transports typically follow a similar trajectory, but the graph expresses a shift with SPX continuing upwards whilst the DOW seems to be struggling.
SPX 3 Year Trends
SPX & DOW Transports (2005-07)
Trend line of SPX and DOW prior to the 2008 financial crisis
SPX & DOW Transports (1998-2000)
Trend line of SPX and DOW during the dotcom bubble.
OIL 3 Year
The trajectory of oil has begun to level-off. Is this an early indication that inflation is leveling off.
Nvidia Graph
As AI leads the market–Nvidia at the forefront–its trajectory will be a critical indicator of the market in the coming weeks.
Join us on the Equity Armor Channel as we navigate these market mysteries and equip you with the knowledge to navigate the ever-evolving financial landscape. Let’s explore the “ripple effect” together and understand the forces shaping the market’s current course.
