Nobody Knows What Happens Next (And That’s Okay)

The talking heads are out in force this week. Turn on any financial news channel, scroll through social media, or browse the latest market commentary, and you’ll find no shortage of experts confidently declaring exactly what the stock market will do next. They’ll point to the Strait of Hormuz tensions, dissect oil price movements, and draw parallels to 1991 with the certainty of someone reading yesterday’s newspaper.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth they won’t tell you: Nobody knows what happens next.

The Illusion of Certainty

Right now, geopolitical tensions are running high. The Iranian parliament has approved a motion to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint where 20-30% of the world’s oil supply passes through daily. It’s a genuine concern that deserves attention. Oil prices have ticked up, Asian markets have shown jitters, and volatility has crept into U.S. equity futures.

But here’s what’s fascinating: despite all this uncertainty, the dollar is rallying and oil hasn’t spiked out of control. The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, but it’s not panicking. Volatility is high, but not out of control. Things can still go both ways.

This is exactly the kind of environment where the loudest voices emerge, each claiming to know exactly where we’re headed. Some will invoke the 1990-1991 recession, when oil price shocks following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait contributed to economic downturn. Others will point to different historical parallels or technical indicators that “prove” their thesis.

The reality? We’re in uncharted territory, just like we always are.

The Wall of Worries

There’s an old market saying: “The market climbs a wall of worries.” It’s one of the most reliable patterns in investing, yet it’s consistently forgotten during turbulent times.

Think about it—when has the market ever had a clear path ahead? There’s always something to worry about. Always a crisis on the horizon. Always a reason to wait for a “better time” to invest. Yet over the long term, markets have a remarkable ability to adapt, overcome, and ultimately move higher.

Companies innovate. Economies adapt. The worst-case scenarios that dominate headlines often fail to fully materialize. Not because the concerns aren’t real, but because human ingenuity and market forces have a way of finding solutions.

This doesn’t mean we should ignore risks or stick our heads in the sand. It means we should recognize that uncertainty is the only certainty in investing.

The Danger of False Prophets

The most dangerous people in volatile markets aren’t the ones spreading fear—they’re the ones spreading false confidence. The analysts who claim to know exactly how the Strait of Hormuz situation will play out. The pundits who can “predict” oil price targets to the dollar. The technical analysts who see definitive patterns in what is essentially organized chaos.

These voices are particularly seductive because they offer something we desperately crave: certainty. They package complex, unpredictable situations into neat, digestible predictions. They make us feel like we can control the uncontrollable.

But here’s the thing—if they really knew what was going to happen, they wouldn’t be sharing it on TV or social media. They’d be too busy making money from their perfect predictions.

Stay Invested, Stay Nimble

So what’s an investor to do in this environment? The answer isn’t to abandon ship or to pretend everything is fine. It’s to embrace a different approach entirely.

Stay invested. History shows that trying to time the market is a losing game. The biggest gains often come during periods of highest uncertainty, when fear has driven prices to attractive levels. Missing just a few of the market’s best days can devastate long-term returns.

Stay nimble. Being invested doesn’t mean being passive. Review your asset allocation. Rebalance when volatility has pushed your portfolio away from your target mix. Maintain adequate cash reserves for both peace of mind and potential opportunities.

Stay active. Rebalance your portfolio when volatility is high, and sell your hedges opportunistically. When others are paralyzed by uncertainty, disciplined investors can take advantage of market swings.

Stay focused on the long term. Unless your fundamental goals or risk tolerance have changed, don’t let daily headlines drive major portfolio decisions. The market’s daily movements are noise; your long-term financial objectives are the signal.

The Only Honest Answer

I don’t know what will happen with the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t know if oil will spike to $100 or settle back down. I don’t know if the current geopolitical tensions will escalate or de-escalate. I don’t know if we’re headed for recession or continued growth.

What I do know is this: admitting uncertainty isn’t weakness—it’s wisdom. The market has climbed walls of worries before, and it will likely continue to do so. The investors who prosper aren’t the ones who predict the future; they’re the ones who prepare for multiple futures.

In a world full of people claiming to know exactly what happens next, the most honest answer might be the most valuable one: Nobody knows, and that’s exactly why staying disciplined, diversified, and invested for the long term remains the best strategy.

The market will do what it always does—surprise everyone, including the experts. The question isn’t whether you can predict what’s coming next. The question is whether you can stay invested while everyone else is losing their heads.