Joe Tigay Everyone’s Pretending to Know What Happens Wednesday. Here’s the Truth.
By Joe Tigay
Portfolio Manager, Rational Equity Armor Fund and Catalyst Nasdaq 100 Hedged Equity Fund
Let me start with a confession about Wednesday’s Fed decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference: I am noise.
In the vast ecosystem of market commentary, financial media, and investment punditry, my voice is just one more signal competing for your attention. And here’s the uncomfortable truth that most people in my position won’t tell you: the experts who get paid to deliver news and tell compelling stories don’t know what’s going to happen any better than anyone else.
The best we can do—the most honest thing we can do—is help explain difficult concepts and provide context. Predicting the future? That’s impossible. Anyone who claims they know what will happen tomorrow is a liar.
If you consume any media about the stock market, political developments, geopolitics, or even something as trivial as sports, you’ll notice the same pattern: pundits positioning themselves as modern-day Nostradamus figures, confidently declaring what comes next. The truth? They don’t know. None of us can. Yet in today’s “For You Page” media environment, this problem has intensified. Every story is staged as a game, and audiences gravitate toward voices that promise their side will win.
So let me be clear: I don’t know what’s going to happen this week.
But I do know this: I’m prepared for all outcomes.
Flying Blind: The Data Blackout
This week presents one of the most unusual market environments I’ve encountered in my career—from my days as an SPX and VIX pit market maker to my current role managing hedged equity strategies. We’re facing a rare combination of mega-cap technology earnings, critical Federal Reserve policy decisions, and geopolitical developments, all unfolding during a significant data blackout.
The ongoing US government shutdown has halted the release of nearly all official economic data on jobs, trade, and manufacturing. The Federal Reserve and investors are essentially flying blind, forced to rely on alternative, private-sector reports like PMI surveys instead of the comprehensive government data we typically use to gauge economic health.
This injects enormous uncertainty into market calculations. Policymakers lack the clear, official signals they depend on to make informed decisions. It’s a reminder that even in our data-saturated age, sometimes the most important information simply isn’t available.
What We Do Know
Despite the information vacuum, a few critical pieces have emerged:
The inflation picture showed recent relief. The delayed Consumer Price Index came in slightly softer than expected, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this week. With this data in hand, the central bank is attempting to thread the needle—supporting a labor market showing signs of softening without reigniting inflation.
Corporate earnings have been resilient. Bank earnings have generally been strong, with investment banking and trading revenues performing well. This signals that corporate dealmaking and capital markets activity are picking up, offering a positive sign for the broader economy even as retail banking units monitor consumer credit risk.
The geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically. Negotiators have reached a preliminary consensus on a “substantial framework” for a US-China trade deal ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting later this week. The threat of 100 percent across-the-board tariffs appears effectively off the table, and China is expected to defer restrictive rare-earth export controls. This de-escalation removes significant uncertainty, particularly for sectors reliant on global supply chains.
The Week That Will Define the Rest of the Year
All of this leads us into one of the most consequential weeks of 2025:
- Wednesday: Fed policy decision and Powell press conference
- Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings
- Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META) earnings
- Thursday: Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) earnings
The Fed’s decision, combined with guidance from these technology giants on cloud spending and AI monetization, will likely determine market direction for the remainder of the year. These earnings reports represent a critical test of the investment thesis driving current market trends—particularly around AI spending growth, infrastructure demands like Small Modular Reactors for power, and the enterprise adoption of AI platforms.
The positive momentum from the China trade framework provides a helpful tailwind as markets absorb this immense volume of critical information.
Prepared, Not Predictive
So where does this leave us?
I won’t pretend to know whether Wednesday’s Fed decision will spark a rally or a selloff. I can’t tell you if Big Tech earnings will validate current valuations or disappoint. I have no crystal ball for how markets will interpret geopolitical developments or navigate the data blackout.
What I can tell you is that our portfolios are positioned to weather multiple scenarios. Hedged equity strategies exist precisely for moments like these—when uncertainty is high, when information is incomplete, and when the noise drowns out the signal.
The noise will tell you what’s definitely going to happen. The noise will promise certainty in uncertain times. The noise—and yes, I’m part of it—will try to sound confident because that’s what sells.
But wisdom lies in preparation, not prediction.
Joe Tigay is a former SPX and VIX pit market maker and current Portfolio Manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund and Catalyst Nasdaq 100 Hedged Equity Fund. Learn more about Joe’s background.
This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
